Syrian War drawing to a close.

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mdsimpson92
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Syrian War drawing to a close.

Post by mdsimpson92 » Mon Dec 17, 2012 12:07 am

I don't know how much the rest of you have been paying attention to the Syrian conflict (I check almost everyday for updates), but it appears that Assad is nearly out of power.

In the north, his army in Aleppo is stuck in a stalemate, while the rebels are capturing bases and supply lines around them. Eventually the 20,000 man army there will be forced to surrender.

in the region of Latakia, Assad is still holding strong because the majority of the people there are alawites. If Assad doesn't go down in Damascus, he will probably flee there, and withdraw his remaining forces there, where he can be more easily supplied and defended.

Damascus is "under siege" personally I would give it at least a month before it falls, probably two given that Assad still controls (however loosely) the majority of the surrounding area.

The issue I might have it that the rebels factions have clashed with the kurds that control the northern border as well as its gradual radicalization. the Al-Nusra brigade is of particular concern considering they are associated with alqaeda in iraq.

Thoughts predictions
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Re: Syrian War drawing to a close.

Post by Metacrock » Mon Dec 17, 2012 9:56 am

I follow it to a point.I have not been aware of the last stage where Damascus is under siege. I was aware of the gas scare a week ago. I've been horrified by the whole thing, I've followed it since the U.S. media began talking about it during Arab Spring.

I'm also alarmed by Egypt. I knew that guy was up to no good from the start.

What do the Chinese say? do they follow it? do they talk about it openly?
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Re: Syrian War drawing to a close.

Post by mdsimpson92 » Mon Dec 17, 2012 9:02 pm

Metacrock wrote:I follow it to a point.I have not been aware of the last stage where Damascus is under siege. I was aware of the gas scare a week ago. I've been horrified by the whole thing, I've followed it since the U.S. media began talking about it during Arab Spring.

I'm also alarmed by Egypt. I knew that guy was up to no good from the start.

What do the Chinese say? do they follow it? do they talk about it openly?
Chinese are with the Russians only caring a bit less as they have less to lose. Keep NATO out of it and try to have negotiations. That's pretty much it.

Yeah, Morsi was sure quick to reveal himself as the bad guy hasn't he.
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Re: Syrian War drawing to a close.

Post by Metacrock » Tue Dec 18, 2012 8:13 am

that's interesting. what do average Chinese care about? Aside from surviving?
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Re: Syrian War drawing to a close.

Post by mdsimpson92 » Tue Dec 18, 2012 9:24 am

Metacrock wrote:that's interesting. what do average Chinese care about? Aside from surviving?
If were talking about foreign policy, the big thing is the Diaoyu islands. You can't imagine how much racism there is against the Japanese. A couple of worthless rocks that no chinese have lived in for a hundred years, and these people are puffing all this smoke.

The biggest internal issue is the significant and heavily built in corruption that is set in both the government and the culture. 天高皇帝远。In a US studies they say China will become a true superpower in every respect, or the government will have collapsed. Obviously it will probably end up somewhere in between.
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Re: Syrian War drawing to a close.

Post by Metacrock » Tue Dec 18, 2012 2:50 pm

mdsimpson92 wrote:
Metacrock wrote:that's interesting. what do average Chinese care about? Aside from surviving?
If were talking about foreign policy, the big thing is the Diaoyu islands. You can't imagine how much racism there is against the Japanese. A couple of worthless rocks that no chinese have lived in for a hundred years, and these people are puffing all this smoke.

The biggest internal issue is the significant and heavily built in corruption that is set in both the government and the culture. 天高皇帝远。In a US studies they say China will become a true superpower in every respect, or the government will have collapsed. Obviously it will probably end up somewhere in between.
what dos that word mean? Government and culture? break it down for me.
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Re: Syrian War drawing to a close.

Post by mdsimpson92 » Wed Dec 19, 2012 12:03 am

Metacrock wrote: what dos that word mean? Government and culture? break it down for me.
In terms of Culture, China has a cultural influence from the Confucian thought to emphasize family over the state, on of the reasons why state owned enterprises are full of relatives of party members. These enterprises, if you got rid of subsidies and deductions, actually generally have a net negative in terms of profits. So the government is basically paying their family members to run these companies with mediocrity. Another thing is that bribery is just considered a normal thing. It has been throughout Chinese civilization. Those who didn't were considered a dreamer or incapable.


Furthermore, China has never(except in the Qin) had an emphasis on rule of law. According to Confucius, the rule of law only makes people find ways to get around those laws. He preferred "rule by virtue." Along with the fact that China didn't have a constitution until 1980 and that laws are often ignored for the sake of policy.The If China were to enforce the laws they already had on paper, China would have a MUCH better human rights record. But because of the lack of consistency in enforcement and the sometimes limited influence of the central governments on the party secretariats in the provinces vertical horizontal structure of command makes it immensely difficult.
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Re: Syrian War drawing to a close.

Post by Metacrock » Wed Dec 19, 2012 8:27 am

I know some of that. It's interesting to hear from someone who is there first hand.

I hope the Syrian war draws to a close soon. I notice those reported were freed. I didn't even hear fo their capture until they were free. That's how overshadowed it was by the shootings.
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